Americans over the age of 55 will take roughly half of all new jobs created in the next decade, economists estimate, as the U.S. population ages and more people postpone retirement. What’s more, the biggest jump in labor force-growth in coming years will come from those age 75 and older. Overall employment is projected to nearly double by 2030, according to Labor Department forecasts. The future of the American workforce, in other words, is looking gray.
“We’re redefining old age,” says Richard Johnson, director of the Program on Retirement Policy with the Urban Institute, a Washington-based think tank. “Workers 65 and older are going to become much more important in the coming decade than they are today.”
The trend holds major implications for U.S. employers who have now spent more than two years trying to hire. In part because of what it says about who remains available to work. And which worker populations have the most untapped potential. Employment among prime-age Americans — aged 25 to 54 — has more than fully recovered and surpassed its pre-pandemic level. But employment among those above age 65 fell roughly 10% at the start of the pandemic and has yet to recover, Johnson says.
That means there is room for employers to lure potentially millions of retired Americans back to work for the right opportunity. Particularly as pandemic-related health concerns continue to fade. Given the growth in employment among older workers before the pandemic, some economists expect the wave of retirements over the past two years could be largely reversible. Making the growing ranks of Americans over 65 an available talent pool. 
Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, found that the share of Americans who are retired soared by 2.1 million above trend between February 2020 and June 2021. The increase wasn’t due to more people moving into retirement, but fewer people than normal going back to work after choosing to retire.
The Kansas City Fed economists felt that trend could be temporary for two main reasons. First, because previous recessions never saw this phenomenon, they believed it was an effect of Covid related health concerns and would fade alongside the pandemic.
And the share who retired “includes people across a wide range of ages,” the economists wrote. Suggesting many of those who postponed their plans to rejoin the labor force still have time to do so when the pandemic ends.
As of 2021, 25.8% of Americans between the ages of 65 and 74 were still working, according to Labor Department data. That share is forecast to jump to 30.7% by 2031.
Article published by Barron’s on Marketwatch
